May 2008 Sitting, What do you think?

[JoshLacombe]

First of all, i'd like to introduce myself, I am Josh Lacombe. A former teacher, current claims adjuster and studier for Exam P/1.

I've been reading quite often the postings in these forums just for the fun of it and now I have come out of the shadows to see what you think of my situation.

Background. I have a BA in mathematics (ed.) with the following classes under my belt between 2004-2006

Calculus 1,2,3 (single variable, multivariable, infinite series)
Non-Calc Stats
Calculus based Stats 1,2 (mostly direct apps w/ little theory)
Graduate Stats 1 (basically calc based 1 w/ nearly everything being theoretical)
Linear Algebra I

There are many more but these have been the popular ones that I have seen thrown around the forums as useful courses to have taken.

Yes, my educational resume may seem like it would make this test easier, but I am not so sure.

I bought the ASM manual back in June for the August test but got hired on as a claims adjuster and had to go for training from the end of July until the beginning of September so I had to put the studying train on hold

I picked up the manual Saturday, 12/1/07 and began studying for the May 2008 sitting. With my full time job, I study 3 hours a day on Sat/Sun and 1.5 hours each week night.

I have covered the first section of the ASM on General Probability and after 3 days, I feel comfortable with most if not all of the information in that section. I feel comfortable with combinatorics, Bayes Theorem type problems and problems solvable by Venn Diagrams and am decent with set theory but that would be my weakest point in that section.

I started section 2 on Random Variables and have read through the first half twice and upon my first attempt, I was only able to answer 1 of the mid-section questions correctly, and the other three were horrible. Is this normal? When you first saw a type of problem, did you understand and know how to complete it? I feel dirty not giving a decently thought out attempt because I simply cant. I have studied this type of material before but not survival functions, hazards, multiple or mixed distributions. I feel lost and have resorted to just reviewing integration techniques to be able to feel like i'm making any progress. I do need to brush up on my calculus as I read somewhere that there a decent list of calculus techniques that are needed on the exam. I have reviewed those 4 mid-section problems and now understand how to do 3 of the 4 of them but on one of them, I am somewhat lost. I will have to try again on it tomorrow. There are some problems, I just cannot get. There is no one around here that I can ask for help and some of these problems, I just need a good thorough explanation of the procedure and the theory behind it. How did you guys get around this? I also posted in the study group in Seatte part of the forum. That would help, wish I was still in college so I could go ask my teacher or a peer, that's just not an option anymore.

To try to help myself learn to my maximum capacity, I am repeating material until I get it, and can correctly complete exercises from the manual and I keep a Study Diary where I write my times and what I think of my studying, good bad and indifferent and will share at some point to see if anyone would be helped by it.

My main concern is my speed in picking up this material given that I have already taken it. If I am slow in picking things up, I need to keep reviewing the past material, but if I am not at a point to start practice exams for a couple months, how can I retain that knowledge from the same 12 example problems from the ASM manual. I don't think doing those over and over again will yield results after a certain point. Suggestions?

Any critique of my background, study habits, or aspirations would be welcomed as I am willing to do what it takes to become a test taker who can say, as Dr. O. would put it, Been there, Done that, after each and every problem of the May 2008 exam.

And again, hello to everyone!

[coldplay]

maybe you could give a shot on the one in Feb.

[JoshLacombe]

Originally that was what I had thought about doing, but judging that I started on the first day of December and the deadline for registration was the 20th of that same month. I don't think that I will be prepared just after a meager three weeks of studying to make an educated decision about if I can be ready in February if I will most likely be halfway through the material at that time.. It is just so soon from when I was starting, in my opinion, to know if I can learn everything I need to and be ready as I hope to be.

Another factor is the money. The test fee is out of pocket for me at this time and I don't want to throw around money if it's not a nearly sure thing.

Any other insight would be welcomed, thanks for the reply, I appreciate it.

[speedemonsis357]

I just passed P/1 this sitting. I must say that I was feeling just like you were in August and September---only two months before my exam--you have six months--remember this.

I used the ASM manual (an amazing manual) to study as well as ACTEX. My first two times through the explanatory material were rough . . I definitely had to work through the problems in the explanations and some were still a slight bit over my head. Remember that you can email Dr. Krzys' questions about any problems, and in my experience he will get back to you very quickly and do anything possible to help you understand, not simply get the answer to a question. Also, Dr. Krzys' offers great review seminars for the exams based off of the manual that you are using--its amazing how things tend to make sense after he verbally explains things--i would recommend this greatly.
Here's the link for the information about the seminars: [URL="http://www.math.ilstu.edu/actuary/exams/prep_courses.shtml"]

As far as reading the explanatory sections, the hardest part for me was simply sitting down and memorizing formulae so that the material in the random variables and multivariate sections made sense with less effort. Make flashcards--but don't just make them--use them EVERY DAY. Also, I found it useful, although a big pain, to make a table to help me memorize all of the distributions needed--not just the commonly used ones. I made one with all the answers and a blank one that I filled in almost every day (this was probably the most effective thing I did). Either make one, or PM me and I'll send it to you if you would like it!

If you feel that you would like more than the few problems that are in the explanatory sections to practice a specific set of information, I would recommend using ACTEX or another manual with the same setup. This manual has ten sections so the material is broken down more, and gives a problem set after each section of 20-30 problems based on the material given in a specific section. Although this was somewhat helpful in the beginning, I didn't use it after I had a basic understanding becuase the problems seemed extraneous or simply too easy, unlike the majority of Dr. Krzys' awesome manual.

Even if you don't feel confident about all the material--start going through a few of the practice exams. I learned more through going through the solutions than I did reading the material over and over (perhaps this was becuase I knew the explanatory material almost by heart after going through it numerous times) You might not do so great on some of the practice exams, but keep doing the problems until you understand them---and then do them again. Most importantly, if you do poorly on an exam, especially before April, don't get discouraged. It happened to me, and it will only bring a person down, for me to the point of giving up on studying for a week. Don't let this happen to you!

I hope this helps :) If you have any more questions, feel free to contact me.

Happy Studying!

[magpie]

I would say take it in February. Why? Because...

If X = Monetary gain from taking the first exam in February
P(fail in Feb.) = .65
Benefit of being 3 months ahead in your career = atleast $1000? An actuarial analyst I (with one exam passed and no experience) should make atleast $1000 more than a claims adjuster, and I'm being conservative there.

Then the expected value of X is:
E(X) = .65 (-175) + .35 (Benefit of being 3 months ahead)
= -113.75 + .35 (1000)
= 236.25

This means take it in February. If you fail, atleast you'll know what to expect in May, and you'll be out $175, that's not a lot, especially if instead of going out drinking you are staying in and studying.

[Adazard]

I would say take it in February. Why? Because...

If X = Monetary gain from taking the first exam in February
P(fail in Feb.) = .65
Benefit of being 3 months ahead in your career = atleast $1000? An actuarial analyst I (with one exam passed and no experience) should make atleast $1000 more than a claims adjuster, and I'm being conservative there.

Then the expected value of X is:
E(X) = .65 (-175) + .35 (Benefit of being 3 months ahead)
= -113.75 + .35 (1000)
= 236.25

This means take it in February. If you fail, atleast you'll know what to expect in May, and you'll be out $175, that's not a lot, especially if instead of going out drinking you are staying in and studying.

LOL!!! Nice way to apply expected value :)

[PS_87]

I would say take it in February. Why? Because...

If X = Monetary gain from taking the first exam in February
P(fail in Feb.) = .65
Benefit of being 3 months ahead in your career = atleast $1000? An actuarial analyst I (with one exam passed and no experience) should make atleast $1000 more than a claims adjuster, and I'm being conservative there.

Then the expected value of X is:
E(X) = .65 (-175) + .35 (Benefit of being 3 months ahead)
= -113.75 + .35 (1000)
= 236.25

This means take it in February. If you fail, atleast you'll know what to expect in May, and you'll be out $175, that's not a lot, especially if instead of going out drinking you are staying in and studying.

Honestly im totally agree to get a try on Feb. Even you wasn't feel comfortable now, you can still get all the material before feb. personally, i feel and think that do in may will be too long. 3 months preparing for exam P. I think it is enough also that you already know the basic stuff.

[Fermat83]

I just took exam p and I am positive that I passed. I too am a math major and took prob and stat 1 in college and let me say it did very little in preparation for exam p mostly because I only got a C+ and it had been years since I learned the material. I would advise not taking the feb exam as their is good chance you will fail at your study rate. I would say this exam requires 250-400 hrs of study. In the begining there were times that when I would attempt problems and I felt like riping all my hair out because of frustration.

CRITICAL STUDY ADVICE:
1.)Like you as a math major I spent lots of time studying theory,ie going over proofs etc. DON'T DO THIS! Spend more time doing problems and learning from yours or the authors solutions. The way you learn the material is by doing many problems, attempt a problem if you get stumped quit after 20 min, READ THE SOLUTION CAREFULLY make sure you understand it then see if you can think of another solution method(this is almost always the case) also think of what type of variations of the question the examiners could give you and how could they make the problem more difficult. In the begining attempting problems and getting stumped and going over the solutions happend to me a lot. Towards the end you should accumulate speed and accuarcy and be able to perform under time constraints.

2.) Most of the Intuition you seek can be found by using your head.
I spent lots of time while driving, walking to class, or any free time thinking about independence, expectation, orderstatistics etc.

3.) One study manual is not enough. Dr o's ASM manual is excellent in the depth and difficulty of the questions he provides and his solution methods are detailed and faster and more efficient methods than most authors. Also his discussion of the survival function ie "darth vader rule" is a critical part of passing the exam, the survival funtion provides many short cuts. However, I think he doesn't elaborate enough or teach enough in the notes section. I used another study manual(which stunk so I won't mention it). For greater depth of understanding I strongly suggest u get Y guo's deeper understanding faster calculation exam p. I also used Ross's:"a first course in probability"(which I would not recommend as time is precious) from my student library, however, you should find any additional texts as each author will give you a different perspective and insight that will speed up the learning curve.

4.) Memorize all MGF's and properties of all distributions. Pay special attention to poison,binomial,uniform,exponential, normal distribution's as they are guaranteed to be tested, also special insight is required with these distributions, flashcards are a must.

5.) Fact: lack of confidence and frustration damage your problem solving skills, find ways around this ie, if you get stumped move on and come back as the solution will probably appear out of nowhere.

6.) Do many,many, many!!! problems. Highlight certain problems that really test your depth of understanding and attempt these problems over and over and also ALWAYS try to find faster more calculation error proof solution methods.

7.) Spend the last 3 weeks before the exam simulating testing conditions. Exam taking skills is a subject in itself, the key thing to do is always keep moving don't get stuck on one problem, you want to go through the exam doing all the easy problems first, then backtrack.

8.) Use this forum to your advantage, there are very smart individuals on here. When you get stuck on a problem, ignore your ego and save time by posting it on here. Also read other users posts to problems of interest, as other people will make you view a problem in a way you never thought of and will add to your overall understanding.

9.) Dr O's ASM practice exam's make the real exam look easy, ie.) I got used to solving ASM problems, when I took the actual exam the problems seemed much easier. However, this probably only happend because I thought exam p was going to be very similar to ASM exams and took it very seriously, you should too.

10.) When you are ready to pass the exam you will know it, you should feel as though you could teach probability and stat at the university level.

11.) In the last 3 weeks before the exam I was spending 30-40+ hours a week studying and doing practice exams, and even at this point I felt like I had a good understanding of the material, however, during this period and esspecially the last 3-4 days before the exam I was making stupid error's and getting stumped on problems I that I had good understanding. This even continued till the day before the exam when I was taking GV Ramanathan's practice exam #5(which is unreasonably difficult by the way) and did miserable on it. Because of this I wasn't 100% confident right before taking the exam, however once I got into the examination room I was solving problems left and right with relative ease. Lesson to be learned, I was burnt out those last couple of week's and my mind was playing tricks on me when I really knew the material. If these symptom's start occuring RELAX and realize your brain is fried and take some time off, and most of all don't let it break your confidence.

Most of the above I had to painstaking learn from experience, so I if you want to pass and save time doing it take my advice and learn all of the above, also along the way you will learn your own study methods that will work for you, until then print my post and place it on the desk where you study for reference, I guarantee you will pass. GOOD LUCK!

[JoshLacombe]

I really appreciate the replies and the quality of those replies.

I'll keep at it like I have been and see how I feel in 2 weeks as for deciding on which test to sit for.

I am quite glad to hear that alot of the learning comes from the problems and doing and especially redoing them. I was down on myself because I had no idea on some of them on how to solve them right off the bat at first glance. I have read through the processes and am about to start the moment generating functions or review them rather. Up until this point, there is only 1 problem I don't quite get and a few concepts (survival, hazard, multidistributions) which as giving me a hard time, so I'll review calc a bit and plug away at it some more.

Thanks again.

[CPMOM]

I just passed P/1 this sitting. I must say that I was feeling just like you were in August and September---only two months before my exam--you have six months--remember this.

I used the ASM manual (an amazing manual) to study as well as ACTEX. My first two times through the explanatory material were rough . . I definitely had to work through the problems in the explanations and some were still a slight bit over my head. Remember that you can email Dr. Krzys' questions about any problems, and in my experience he will get back to you very quickly and do anything possible to help you understand, not simply get the answer to a question. Also, Dr. Krzys' offers great review seminars for the exams based off of the manual that you are using--its amazing how things tend to make sense after he verbally explains things--i would recommend this greatly.
Here's the link for the information about the seminars: [URL="http://www.math.ilstu.edu/actuary/exams/prep_courses.shtml"]

As far as reading the explanatory sections, the hardest part for me was simply sitting down and memorizing formulae so that the material in the random variables and multivariate sections made sense with less effort. Make flashcards--but don't just make them--use them EVERY DAY. Also, I found it useful, although a big pain, to make a table to help me memorize all of the distributions needed--not just the commonly used ones. I made one with all the answers and a blank one that I filled in almost every day (this was probably the most effective thing I did). Either make one, or PM me and I'll send it to you if you would like it!

If you feel that you would like more than the few problems that are in the explanatory sections to practice a specific set of information, I would recommend using ACTEX or another manual with the same setup. This manual has ten sections so the material is broken down more, and gives a problem set after each section of 20-30 problems based on the material given in a specific section. Although this was somewhat helpful in the beginning, I didn't use it after I had a basic understanding becuase the problems seemed extraneous or simply too easy, unlike the majority of Dr. Krzys' awesome manual.

Even if you don't feel confident about all the material--start going through a few of the practice exams. I learned more through going through the solutions than I did reading the material over and over (perhaps this was becuase I knew the explanatory material almost by heart after going through it numerous times) You might not do so great on some of the practice exams, but keep doing the problems until you understand them---and then do them again. Most importantly, if you do poorly on an exam, especially before April, don't get discouraged. It happened to me, and it will only bring a person down, for me to the point of giving up on studying for a week. Don't let this happen to you!

I hope this helps :) If you have any more questions, feel free to contact me.

Happy Studying!

Hi, I read this post and found it very helpful. I'm in the same position as Josh. I've made a list of the distributions but fear that I may be missing some. You mentioned that you used a list, would you mind emailing it to me? Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks.
felicialerner.cc@gmail.com