NHL 2011-12: The Thread

[Irish Blues]

Well, I would have liked to start this thread on a more positive tone but it's been a rough offseason - and this morning's news that a plane crashed in Russia killing almost everyone for Lokomotiv just underscores how bad an offseason it's been for fans. If I counted correctly, at least 11 current or former NHL players died in the crash, adding to the 3 deaths from the offseason.

Let's hope '11-12 goes a whole lot better than the last 3-4 months have.

[Irish Blues]

Predictions coming tomorrow; I'd do a preseason recap, but I don't have time.

[Irish Blues]

As promised, predictions for the season [with low confidence - see next post]:

Eastern Conference
1. Boston
2. Washington
3. Philadelphia
4. Pittsburgh
5. Tampa Bay
6. NY Rangers
7. Montreal
8. New Jersey
9. Carolina
10. Winnipeg
11. Buffalo
12. Florida
13. Toronto
14. NY Islanders
15. Ottawa
-- The more I look at this, the more it really gets cluttered from 6-13 ... much like the West last year. It wouldn't surprise me if WPG and/or CAR got into the playoffs over MTL and/or NJ. I think the top-3 are clear cut, assuming Crosby is out more than 6 weeks; if he's back early, the Penguins could bump the Flyers out. I'm also going to take the Sabres to miss the playoffs despite throwing money around like a drunken sailor.

Western Conference
1. Vancouver
2. San Jose
3. Nashville
4. Los Angeles
5. Detroit
6. Anaheim
7. Chicago
8. St. Louis
9. Columbus
10. Calgary
11. Dallas
12. Minnesota
13. Phoenix
14. Edmonton
15. Colorado
-- No real surprises here; Colorado fights Ottawa for the basement, with Washington [who has the Avs 1st round pick this year] cheering the Avs down. Phoenix is clearly worse without Bryzgalov, Calgary is older and misses again. I almost took Columbus to get into the playoffs ahead of Chicago, but I'll make the Blue Jackets prove me wrong before I take them for a top-8 spot. I'm also assuming the Blues don't get ravaged by injuries again this year. I also almost took Detroit lower, but I'll give them one more year.

Playoffs
Boston d. New Jersey 4-1
Washington d. Montreal 4-2
Philadelphia d. NY Rangers 4-0
Pittsburgh d. Tampa Bay 4-1
St. Louis d. Vancouver 4-3
San Jose d. Chicago 4-1
Nashville d. Anaheim 4-2
Los Angeles d. Detroit 4-2
-- Last year, I said that Claude Julien would get canned after the B's lost in the 1st round. Oops! Vancouver choked last year, it just took until Games 6/7 of the Finals; this year, they get it over with early. Again, Detroit is good - but people are going to overrate them.

Pittsburgh d. Boston 4-2
Washington d. Philadelphia 4-1
San Jose d. St. Louis 4-2
Nashville d. Los Angeles 4-2
-- Pittsburgh is on a mission, and Philadelphia will inevitably choke [again]. Nashville just finds a way to get it done [again].

Washington d. Pittsburgh 4-3
San Jose d. Nashville 4-1
-- Call me crazy, but I'm taking the Caps to the Finals.

San Jose d. Washington 4-2
-- Yeah, I'm slurping the Sharks Kool-Aid [with many others]. I'm also taking the same prediction as I had last year.

[Irish Blues]

As I was putting together my predictions, a couple feelings kept coming up:

1. Parity - in some areas, teams are so close it's hard to distinguish and you're all but drawing from a hat.
2. Predictability - it's way too easy to take Boston back to the Finals; given one two teams have done that in back-to-back years post-lockout, can I really take the B's to go win it all again?

So ... the playoff predictions should be taken with a block of salt the size of Central Park. I may update them later in the year, especially if I can get my hockey sim model up and running.