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Thread: When to approximate Binomial with Poisson and when with Normal?

  1. #1
    Actuary.com - Level I Poster
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    When to approximate Binomial with Poisson and when with Normal?

    My Schaum's outline gives the following criteria for deciding when to approximate a binomial distribution with a Poisson or a Normal distribution:

    Poisson: 3 requirements:
    (1.) n >> p
    (2.) np < 5
    (3.) n > 50
    Normal:
    (1.) n >> p
    (2.) np > 5

    At first, I thought these guidelines might help me sort out the two cases, because Schaum's says np < 5 for Poisson and np > 5 for Normal, but I've stumbled on a number of exceptions. People will sometimes use Poisson, even though np > 5, provided n is bigger than p by, say, a factor of 10^9.

    But I cannot find a consistent pattern here. People eyeball the distribution and make a decision, but I don't have the hang of it yet.

    What criteria should I use on SOA Exam P?

  2. #2
    Actuary.com - Level III Poster Puoya's Avatar
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    I don't think they will ask you to transform a binomial into a poisson. But generally, if they want you to use a normal approximation, they will ask for the "approximate" probability of x occuring; I suppose, you can say, that, if your n is large enough and your P is very small, and you are not told to approximate, you can use the poisson approximation. The key is whether they are asking for an approximate probability!
    good luck!
    "As far as I'm concerned, I prefer silent vice to ostentatious virtue." Albert Einstein
    "It is hard to tell if a man is telling the truth when you know you would lie if you were in his place." H. L. Mencken

  3. #3
    Actuary.com - Level I Poster
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    This is exactly the kind of strategy for interpreting exam questions that I was looking for.

    Thanks!!!!!

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