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Thread: What is the probability that there are at least 2 more high risk drivers than low ris

  1. #1
    Actuary.com - Level II Poster
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    What is the probability that there are at least 2 more high risk drivers than low ris

    Among a pool of adults drivers:
    50% are low risk driver, 30% are moderate risk and 20% are high risk driver.


    An insurance writes 4 new policy for adults. What is the probability that there are at least 2 more high risk drivers than low risk drivers?

    I made use pf the trinomial distribution that is:
    4!/0!2!2! (0.5)^0(0.3)^2(0.2)^2 + 4!/1!0!3! (0.5)^1(0.3)^0(0.2)^3 +4!/0!0!4! (0.5)^0(0.3)^0(0.2)^4 = 0.0552

    However, the answer wasn't correct. Why?:geek:

  2. #2
    Actuary.com - Posting Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by pitwen View Post
    Among a pool of adults drivers:
    50% are low risk driver, 30% are moderate risk and 20% are high risk driver.


    An insurance writes 4 new policy for adults. What is the probability that there are at least 2 more high risk drivers than low risk drivers?

    I made use pf the trinomial distribution that is:
    4!/0!2!2! (0.5)^0(0.3)^2(0.2)^2 + 4!/1!0!3! (0.5)^1(0.3)^0(0.2)^3 +4!/0!0!4! (0.5)^0(0.3)^0(0.2)^4 = 0.0552

    However, the answer wasn't correct. Why?:geek:
    That's how SOA does it... maybe you have a calculation error. Have you looked through the SOA problems and SOLUTIONS?

  3. #3
    Actuary.com - Level II Poster
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    Woopz..i didn't know there is a solution set attached!!!
    sorry@@

  4. #4
    Actuary.com - Level III Poster
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    I think one of the major benefits of this forum is that you find out about the resources that everyone else has easy access to.

  5. #5
    Actuary.com - Level II Poster
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    agreed!!! the solutions set just helped me soooo much~~~ thanks!!!:tongue:

  6. #6
    Actuary.com - Level I Poster
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    you forgot the chance that there would be 3 high and 1 moderate.

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