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Thread: Marcel free pdf for exam p Q 9.13

  1. #1
    Actuary.com - Level II Poster
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    Marcel free pdf for exam p Q 9.13

    Hi everyone.
    Problem 9.13
    A study of drinking and driving has found that 40% of all fatal auto accidents
    are attributed to drunk drivers, 1% of all auto accidents are fatal, and drunk
    drivers are responsible for 20% of all accidents. Find the percentage of nonfatal
    accidents caused by drivers who are not drunk.

    Solution: I'm using a grid rows Fatal/Non Fatal, columns Drunk/Not Drunk to solve the above problem.But in my first grid i.e Fatal/ Drunk, I will be tempted to enter 0.4,but filling up the cells with total Fatal =0.01 that will yield negetive cell value for Fatal/Not Drunk. What's the logic of filling that cell with 0.4 times 0.01 =0.004.
    From the question I can't connect the two as a product of 0.4 and 0.01.

    Thanks.

  2. #2
    Actuary.com - Posting Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dabsy View Post
    Hi everyone.
    Problem 9.13
    A study of drinking and driving has found that 40% of all fatal auto accidents
    are attributed to drunk drivers, 1% of all auto accidents are fatal, and drunk
    drivers are responsible for 20% of all accidents. Find the percentage of nonfatal
    accidents caused by drivers who are not drunk.

    Solution: I'm using a grid rows Fatal/Non Fatal, columns Drunk/Not Drunk to solve the above problem.But in my first grid i.e Fatal/ Drunk, I will be tempted to enter 0.4,but filling up the cells with total Fatal =0.01 that will yield negetive cell value for Fatal/Not Drunk. What's the logic of filling that cell with 0.4 times 0.01 =0.004.
    From the question I can't connect the two as a product of 0.4 and 0.01.

    Thanks.
    Are you confusing P(A|B) vs. P(A n B)?

  3. #3
    Actuary.com - Level II Poster
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    Maybe.
    Why do we have to multiply 40% by 1% ?

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